Key Rating Drivers & Detailed Description
Strengths:
- Strong, diversified business risk profile, especially in the textiles business
The Vardhman group is present across the textile, fibre and steel segments, which accounted for 85%, 3% and 12% of revenue, respectively, in fiscal 2022, Though the group is a small player in the steel business, it has a strong market position in the cotton yarn and fabrics segment, on the back of large capacity and established relationships with leading global apparel manufacturers . It is one of the largest spinners in the domestic market, with installed capacity of 12 lakh spindles, accounting for 2% of the total installed spindles in India. Additional capacities of around 97,000 spindles to be added by fiscal 2025, and 1,30,000 spindles by fiscal 2026, should help the healthy growth momentum sustain over the medium term.
The group is also among the top three woven fabric manufacturers in India, with grey and processed fabric capacity of 1,550 looms and 170 million metre per annum, respectively. It is an approved supplier to large retailers such as Wal-Mart (rated 'AA/Stable/A-1+' by S&P Global Ratings), GAP (rated 'BB-/Negative' by S&P Global Ratings), Hennes & Mauritz, and Aditya Birla Fashion & Retail Ltd ('CRISIL AA/Stable/CRISIL A1+'). The group is also one of the largest players in the domestic acrylic fibre market with capacity of 20,000 tonne per annum (TPA). The capacity expansion at Madhya Pradesh will augment presence in the textile sector.
- Healthy operating capability
Strong business position in the textiles business is reinforced by healthy operating capability. The group has continuously invested towards enhancing its spinning productivity. Being one of the largest consumers of raw cotton in the country, procuring over 15 lakh bales per annum, the group enjoys a preferred-buyer status and considerable pricing benefits.
After an extraordinary year of fiscal 2022 (in terms of strong revenue growth and decadal high operating profitability), revenue growth will moderate in the first half of fiscal 2023 due to decline in exports and costlier cotton resulting in lesser cotton yarn-cotton spreads. However, higher new cotton crop projected this season, and expected improvement in export competitiveness due to lowering of cotton prices will increase export demand while domestic demand may remain steady. Weak performance in first half of fiscal 2023 and stretch in realisation will result in moderate revenue decline while the operating margins may contract to 12-13% in fiscal 2023 from peak levels of ~24% in fiscal 2022.Thus, cash accrual is projected at Rs 800-900 crore this fiscal. However, cash accrual should increase to more than Rs 1,200-1,500 crore over the medium term, driven by healthy growth potential and strong market position.
- Strong financial risk profile
Net cash accrual may decline to Rs 800-900 crore in fiscal 2023 and Rs 1,100-1,200 crore in fiscal 2024 (from Rs 1,682 in fiscal 2022) led by average operating profitability. Capex remains moderate over the next three years, hence, debt should decrease to nearly Rs 1,200-1,300 crore in fiscals 2023 and 2024 from Rs 2,144 crore currently. Better profitability and prudent debt funding will aid debt protection metrics. However, any sharp increase in short-term debt for stocking of cotton is a monitorable.
Debt/EBITDA is expected at 0.93 time in fiscal 2023, as compared to 0.84 time in fiscal 2022, aided by lower debt and higher operating margin. The ratio is expected below 1 time in fiscal 2024 due to moderation in debt and operating profit.
Weaknesses:
- Vulnerability of operating profitability to volatility in input prices
The group remains susceptible to volatility in prices of key raw materials, cotton (which accounts for half the cost of yarn) and steel. Cotton prices are exposed to risks such as unfavourable monsoon or pest attacks and are linked to the international demand/supply scenario. Though the group benefits from VTXL's large procurement and adequate risk management systems, profitability remains susceptible to volatility in raw material prices. The operating margin fluctuated between 13.9% and 23.9% in the past decade and was adversely affected during fiscals 2020, 2018, 2015 and 2012, when profitability was hit by the slowdown in demand from China, and government interventions. Similarly, in the steel business, operating margin depends on prices of raw materials such as sponge iron, manganese and nickel.
- Large working capital requirement
As cotton is a seasonal crop, its availability and quality is generally an issue post the cotton season. Driven by its commitment to deliver quality products, the group procures cotton during the season and maintains large inventory at the end of the fiscal. Inventory levels fall by September as the stock is consumed in the first half of the fiscal. They start increasing once the cotton season begins from October and remain high in March. VTXL has receivables averaging 51 days (though they were higher at 63 days as on March 31, 2021, amidst the Covid-19 pandemic). Against this, the group had payables of about 29 days.
Gross current assets were high at 275 days as on March 31, 2021, and 196 days as on March 31, 2022 (against an average of 200-220 days for the five fiscals prior to March 2022). In the steel business, dependence on the automotive industry resulted in sizeable working capital requirement, with receivables of 59 days and inventory of 93 days as on March 31, 2022.
- Modest but improving market position in the steel business
Through VSSL, the group has a relatively smaller presence in the steel business. As it derives over 85% of revenue from the automotive sector, it remains vulnerable to cyclicality in this segment. Better utilisation and focus on cost optimisation ensured steady performance, also reflected in the operating margin rising to 13.7% in fiscal 2022 from 2.4% in fiscal 2015.
VSSL saw one of the best quarterly performances in terms of topline and profit after tax (PAT) in the first quarter of fiscal 2023 owing to higher realisation, revived domestic and export demand and increase in volume growth. Growth is attributed to about 20% increase in volumes and about 20% due to price increase from original equipment manufacturers. With better-than-expected recovery in demand from end-user segments, revenue should remain higher than earlier expectations. Sizeable volumes, but higher cost may contribute to slightly lower margin in fiscal 2023 compared to earlier expectation. However, cost-control measures and initiatives undertaken towards better procurement will support the margin in the coming years with debt protection metrics to remain comfortable over the medium term